2020 – The Year of the Dragon

year of the dragon

It has been almost 2 years since I first came to the shores of Vietnam. We’ve had some incredible adventures, a couple of lockdowns, and dealt with a global pandemic. I thought maybe it was time to bring everything I’ve observed and come to understand about Vietnam together. Tell the story of what it has become to be Vietnam, to experience Vietnam at least from a foreigner’s perspective.

Vietnam in the American Psyche

Before I came to Vietnam, I knew very little. At least not much in modern relevance. In America, we were taught, from a very skewed perspective, on the war years. About the atrocities of that period. About the overthrow of the South by communists. That era in history has been immortalized in countless movies and documentaries.

But it is what came after that seemed to not exist. It was as if a void of nothing filled the space of a Vietnam that once fielded one of the bloodiest wars in modern times. As if, after the American military pulled out of Vietnam, it just ceased to be. It did fall out of the American sphere of influence. Clinging to its then-benefactor, the Soviet Union. Having no further links to the West, Vietnam fell entirely from the American psyche, beyond the memory of war, and for us, out of existence.

Abandoned US military equipment on display in Saigon

Fallout of War

It is true that the years immediately following the war were difficult for the newly unified nation. Poverty, famine, disease, and further wars with neighbors compounded Vietnam’s early economic reality. As the US evacuated the region South Vietnam fell. The well-trained, and by this point, massive Vietnamese people’s Army was unsure how to operate in peacetime. Through decades of constant war, it had evolved into one of the most significant and most well-trained forces at that time. Apart from the US military, and a few others. Acquisitions of abandoned and confiscated military equipment left in the vacuum of the evacuations of the US, and the collapse of the South, further emboldened the fledgling communist state.

Art made from used and abandoned ordinance at the Da Nang History Museum.
Relations with China

In the aftermath of the war, Vietnam’s relationship with its big brother to the north also waned. With the death of Chairman Mao in 1976, Sino-Vietnamese relations deteriorated rapidly. By 1978, Chinese vessels were no longer allowed to dock in Vietnamese ports. To further exacerbate the already collapsed relations, Beijing often meddled in Cambodian-Vietnamese relations. Beijing was a strong ally of the communist Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia. Beijing encouraged extermination and genocide in Cambodia at the hands of their partner and controversial Cambodian ruler Pol Pot. Often targeting Vietnamese ethnic groups. Like poking a dragon looking for a fight, Vietnam would begin an all-out armed invasion of Cambodia in January of ’79.

Vietnam would set up a puppet government in Cambodia—the People’s Republic of Kampuchea. Though the invasion brought to an end the genocide in Cambodia, it did little to lift Vietnam’s tattered image. The Soviet Union supported the newly established government. However, China, France, Norway, Portugal, the United States, and the United Kingdom did not. The UN pushed for further sanctions on Vietnam despite the bloody reputation of Pol Pot and his Khmer Rouge. It did little to deter Vietnam. It was already being sanctioned into famine and poverty by trade embargoes and economic sanctions spearheaded by the US.

China Invades

With sanctions and diplomatic threats falling on deaf ears, China invaded Vietnam on February 17, 1979, less than two months after the Cambodian invasion. Vietnam had taken Cambodia in a matter of days. After a month of fighting, China was only able to take three Vietnamese cities. All within sight of the border. The well-trained Vietnamese army, with modern Soviet and US equipment, stalled the Chinese forces. The invading army was forced to withdraw back across the border just 27 days after the invasion began.

Soviet Relations

During and after the US-Vietnam conflict, the Soviet Union had become Vietnam’s most important ally. Often the embattled and impoverished nations only trade partners and sources of economic aid. In addition, Vietnam used the Soviet model to establish the framework for its newly established government. Establishing its own Politburo and even framing land reform on the basis of collective farming and enterprise in state-controlled industry.

The Coming Soviet Collapse

The land reform policies of the newly unified Vietnam, and the crippling financial burdens of occupying a neighboring nation, combined with sanctions from many UN nations, were pushing Vietnam to the edge of ruin. Increasingly dependent on the Soviet Union to stay solvent. By 1981 The USSR was providing 90 percent of Vietnam’s raw material needs, 70 percent of its grain imports, and a staggering 1/3 of its military budget. When the USSR began slipping into its own economic problems, Vietnam was one of the first programs at risk.

In 1986 the Soviets announced they would begin reducing aid packages to their allies. Almost overnight, Vietnam found itself in a very precarious situation. Soviet aid was quickly drying up. Vietnam’s hard-line leader, Lê Duẩn, died two years prior in 1984. Sanctions were still bogging down the economy, and the Soviet model in Vietnam was faltering. Times were ripe for change. A younger generation began filling government and party seats, and a new path was being established.

Đổi Mới

Đổi Mới officially went into effect at the 6th Congress of the communist party of Vietnam, in December 1986. The “Renovation,” the translation for Đổi Mới, was a new government ideology meant to normalize international relations and stabilize the Vietnamese economy. The program was swift, and the commitment to the ideals was absolute. By June 1987, Vietnam had withdrawn all troops from Cambodia and relieved all military personnel from international duty. The military also immediately discharged 600,000 military personnel and took an about-face from its aggressive and offensive policies. Switching to a more progressive defensive and cooperative military stance.

The following year, in 1988, Vietnam began its economic and diplomatic reforms of the Đổi Mới. The government dropped its label of the US as an enemy state. Thawed its trade and diplomatic relations with China. And ended denouncements against the Southeast Asian cooperative known as ASEAN, Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Previously considering ASEAN as a war-mongering NATO-like organization.

In an even bolder move, Vietnam began to arm the entity that it had ousted in Cambodia a decade prior. Promising peace and neighborly relations to the reestablished Cambodian government. Supplying it with arms to defend its borders, and only asking that it not engage Vietnam in military actions in return.

Accomplishments of Đổi Mới

By 1990 the Prime minister of Thailand was calling for Vietnam to be admitted into ASEAN—an organization it once demonized. By 1991 ASEAN nations began investing in Vietnam, and just 4 years later, made up 15 percent of all investments in the country. Apart from the immediate economic impact of thawed relations with ASEAN, it also provided Vietnam with a peaceful environment to exist in a secure way with its Asian neighbors. Particularly in the vacuum left behind by its former benefactor, the Soviet Union. Something Vietnam had not previously enjoyed. On July 28th, 1995, Vietnam became the fifth member of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

US President Bill Clinton announced the normalization of relations with Vietnam on the 11th of July 1995. Two months later, a US Embassy was opened in Vietnam, 20 years after its original closure. This brought a general normalization to the global community. The economic impacts on Vietnam were almost immediate as foreign investment began pouring into Vietnam. I have written in some detail some of the social, economic, and technological achievements in a prior post you can find here. Below you will find an excerpt from the post.

Saigon – The City of Two Names

Excerpt-

“At this juncture, I feel the need to set a few things straight. I don’t always write about or show pictures of the modern side of Vietnam, because that’s not what interests me. But make no mistake, Vietnam and the Vietnamese have almost caught up to the West. In the past 30 years, Vietnam has climbed from one of, if not the poorest nation in the world. Now a lower middle-income country. From 2002 to 2019, GDP per capita increased by a factor of 2.7. In that same period, 45 million people were lifted out of poverty. Poverty rates declined in Vietnam from 70% in 2002 to below 6% by 2019.

Vietnam also boasts one of the fastest-growing economies in the world and, in 2019, outpaced China. Vietnam has the highest human capital index among middle-income nations and only trails Singapore for all economies and in all of Asia. In recent years Vietnam’s education system has begun to score among the best in the world in the PISA (Program for International Student Assessment). Vietnamese born in 2019 can look forward to an above-average global life expectancy of 76.3 years.

Middle-Class Tendencies

The Vietnamese love to drink beer and watch sports. Shop in modern malls and drive nice cars, or in the most common form, motorbikes. The Vietnamese love to go to the movies, post their latest selfie in some Instagram hotspots, cookout, and spend time with family and friends. They love road trips and exploring the open spaces of their countryside. They love excellent food and sitting in coffee houses sipping beverages. Everyone has a smartphone, high-speed internet, and satellite television. In short, they are no different than any other Western nation.”

Vietnam’s First Billionaire, Phạm Nhật Vượng

I feel a discussion about Vietnam’s rise can not be had without talking about the country’s first native-born, self-made billionaire. I find the story of Phạm to be fascinating and a testament to overcoming obstacles and dogged determination. Born in 1968 in Hanoi, the year of the Tet offensive, to a military father, and a mother who ran a street-side tea stand. There was nothing about Phạm’s upbringing that would lead one to believe he would one day become a multi-billionaire. Worth in 2019, over 20 billion US dollars.

Meager Beginnings

Phạm grew up in the city of Hanoi having a childhood typical of the times. His father sometimes received his meager military wages late or not at all. The family often relied on what little his mother made at the tea stand. After all, the state of the economy was in shambles. In an interview with Vietstock in 2013, Phạm discusses the difficulties of his childhood. He talks about his simple ambitions back then. Only desiring to support his family.

He proved to be a ferocious reader, and it was quickly discovered that Phạm had a high aptitude for language and mathematics. Phạm graduated from Kim Lien High School in 1985. He began university in Hanoi, and two years later, Phạm was offered a scholarship to study mining and geology in Moscow. With this decision, a perfect storm would soon begin the rise of Vietnam’s first billionaire.

Soviet Collapse and Đổi Mới

As Phạm graduated from Moscow University in 1992, the Soviet Union had collapsed, and Vietnam itself was in the early years of its refurbishment. With open market programs beginning to develop in Russia, the Eastern Bloc, and Vietnam, Phạm stumbled into a perfect scenario. Large Vietnamese populations existed in Russia and its former satellite states at the time. In this environment, Phạm married his high school sweetheart and moved to the Ukraine. Borrowing money from family and friends, Phạm and his wife opened a Vietnamese restaurant in Kharkiv, Ukraine.

Having few options for the Vietnamese population in the Ukraine, Phạm’s restaurant became a success. He quickly began an instant noodle company to supply the local Asian people. It, too, would soon grow and would become the Technocom corporation in 1993. Becoming one of the first privately-owned companies to provide dehydrated culinary products to the Ukraine market. The company would later expand, and Phạm would turn it into Vingroup in 2000, with Technocom becoming a subsidiary. He would become so successful that in 2009, Phạm would sell the Technocom division to Nestle for 150 million dollars and return permanently to Vietnam.

The Son Returns

By the time Phạm returned to Vietnam, he had already invested heavily in the country’s newly created private industries. Founding the Vinpearl resort group, a division of the parent Vingroup, he would open his first resort in 2003 in Nha Trang. The whirlwind pace with which Phạm transformed the cities and countryside of Vietnam is staggering. Anything that begins with Vin in Vietnam can be traced back to Phạm.

Vinpearl resort Da Nang with the famous Han River bridge in the foreground.

Our corner grocer and the most abundant grocers in Vietnam are called Vinmart. The mall we visit, and the largest mall in Da Nang, is called VinCom Plaza. In fact, I’ve been to a VinMart and VinCom plaza in every city I’ve visited in Vietnam. His residential construction division, named VinHomes, produces the most luxurious apartment buildings, multi-use skyscrapers, and family homes in Vietnam. In fact, it was Phạm who would build the Landmark 81. He opened it on the 25th anniversary of VinGroup’s founding. The largest occupied building in Southeast Asia and a building we visited in Saigon earlier in the year.

One of the thousands of VinMart+, mini grocery stores that dot Vietnam. Larger full-sized stores called simply VinMart can be found in all VinCom plaza locations.
The entrance to VinCom Plaza Huế above, and the attached hotel below.
VinCom Plaza Da Nang and a nice view from the top below.
2020 - The Year of the Dragon
Riding the Wave

The ambition with which Phạm operates is impressive. Nothing seems to be out of reach for Phạm. He only seems to need the idea to make it happen. Today, Vingroup has 48 subsidiaries producing everything from cars to shoes, and operating everything from farms to amusement parks. It seems that Phạm’s ambitions may outpace the likes of Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. In fact, Phạm has recently opened a 1 billion dollar factory in Hanoi to fill the streets of the capital with electric scooters and cars as early as 2025.

2020 - The Year of the Dragon
Phạm’s crowning achievement, Landmark 81 in Saigon. The tallest occupied structure in Southeast Asia. Built by his VinHomes division and opened to the public on the 25th anniversary of VinGroup’s founding.
2020 - The Year of the Dragon
Diem and I are enjoying the view from the 81st floor of Landmark 81.
2020 - The Year of the Dragon
The main entrance to Landmark 81, VinCom Center.

His most ambitious project yet is his VinFast division. Founded in 2017, Phạm partnered with BMW, Pininfarina, and Magna Steyr to design the first Vingroup-manufactured car. Phạm also began an EV division this year and expects to export his EVs to the US by the end of 2021. Phạm has recently opened a 1 billion dollar factory in Hanoi, aiming to fill the streets of the capital with electric scooters and cars as early as 2025. If VinFast successfully exports to the US, it will be the first time a car manufacturer has done so since Kia entered the US market in 1993. In addition, Phạm also produces Android smartphones under the same Vin Fast brand. It’s an incredible story, that of Phạm Nhật Vượng. Remember that name. This will not be the last time you hear it.

2020 - The Year of the Dragon
VinFast wing of VinCom Da Nang

What This All Means Today

Socially different from China

The first trap that many fall into when discussing Vietnam is its society. Assuming its communist party translates to some sort of oppression or authoritarianism. Though this may be the case in China, it is not the case in Vietnam. A self-proclaimed Socialist Republic, Vietnam maintains term limits, separations of power, an independent judiciary, and national elections. Elections are held every five years, and the populous vote on a five-year plan.

In addition, I also think it is important to point out Vietnam holds no ill will against any other country. Unlike the Chinese, who seem to socially permeate this “the world has gotten one over on me” victim mentality. Vietnam has risen high above that sympathy-mongering, pitiful me attitude. Working hard to find their place in the world effectively in the global community. Every day I walk through the streets of Vietnam, someone yells hello. I will spin around to find its source and begin a small exchange. Hello, how are you? I always feel welcomed, and everyone, I mean everyone, is always happy to see me. And I just love that.

Social networking

In addition, Vietnam is an open society, unlike China. In China, Facebook, Google, Instagram, Twitter, and on and on, are illegal, and access is blocked at the ISP level. However, they are available and actively used in Vietnam. This has created a well-informed and socially adapted society regarding the larger world. Sometimes, not in a positive context. There are many gaming centers around Vietnam, and the youth often can be seen playing games with players from all over the world. It is not terribly uncommon to walk by a center and hear “what the Fuck” echo from within. Heard regularly, playing intense games with English-speaking gamers. You realize when you question it that they are only repeating a phrase they regularly hear, but have no idea of its significance.

A reasonable society

Another luxury the Vietnamese enjoy, compared to other communist countries, is a general rule of law. With term limits, national elections, an independent judiciary, and a relatively stable environment, the Vietnamese are far less likely to be dragged out of their house at night by party thugs as in other communist nations. I have discovered that the Vietnamese authorities are more polite, understanding, and reasonable. If you hear a story of a foreigner arrested, a missionary detained, or a political activist sentenced to prison, I assure you they were warned by the authorities many times.

I myself have experienced the warning phase when dealing with the pandemic in An Lao. I was asked not to leave the property until I could leave the village altogether. This was not a request, of course. However, a very Vietnamese thing to do is make a demand in the form of a request. It’s a subtle approach that you pick up on after being here for a while. Another cultural quirk is always to say yes, even if you mean no. I did as I was told, and I had no problems.

The workings of government

Different candidates will align themselves with an agenda. It is not very different than in the US, only in Vietnam, it is not determined by party affiliation. The populous will then vote on the candidates that best represent their ideals and what they think is vital for the next five-year cycle. Thus, the populous votes on local officials and their representatives to the national assembly. The National Assembly is the legislative branch of the central government.

President vs. Prime Minister

More in tune with a parliamentarian style of government, the National Assembly then appoints the President. The President is the head of state and Commander in chief. He deals more with international relations and state functions and can only serve three terms. The president, in turn, is the appointor of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister is the third in the line of power in normal conditions, behind the President, and the President behind the current head of the Communist Party of Vietnam. The current President is also the current head of the Party, making him the highest-ranking official in the country. Only the third time since 1945 that this has been the case. The Prime Minister of Vietnam is the essential manager of the nation. Appointing a team of deputy prime ministers for the different areas of responsibility, finance, health, transportation, etc. It is his office that deals with the daily workings of the nation.

2020 - The Year of the Dragon
A picture I took of a massive Vietnamese flag in Hue. I just thought it was a good picture.

Dragon Ascending

We finally come to the most exciting aspects of Vietnam and its relationship with the world today. Do not forget that 30 years ago, Vietnam was one of the poorest nations in the world. Vietnam was shunned by the regional trade and security union ASEAN and was being economically sanctioned by the wealthiest nations in the UN. Not to mention, its only benefactor had just collapsed.

To me, that makes the following realities of 2020 even more remarkable. In 2020, Vietnam made its case for becoming a regional power and global contributor. They are set to potentially be the only Asian nation to have GDP growth in 2020. The World Bank’s projections for Vietnam show its growth drop from a projected 6.5 percent to between 3 and 4 percent for 2020. This is incredible, given the current global economic environment.

Disaster response

Vietnam has shown its ability to handle disasters, having dealt with the pandemic better than most countries. At the writing of this post, late September 2020, Vietnam has confirmed only 1,069 cases and 35 deaths. When the pandemic first hit, Phạm Nhật Vượng and his Vingroup, began converting factories to produce ventilators and medical supplies. With Vietnam’s swift reaction to the outbreak, Vingroup found itself with a surplus and began donating the ventilators on behalf of Vietnam to hard-hit nations like the US.

In international relations, Vietnam has two very profound accomplishments. It is sitting in this term as a rotating member of the UN Security Council and the chair nation for ASEAN. Vietnam sees this as an opportunity to show the world its accomplishments. Its societal gains, government stability, and ability to be a responsible member of the global community. It is establishing itself as a desirable place to live and to do business. I don’t know that any country has ever taken thirty years and done so much. It is a remarkable turnaround for a nation once in ruin. In the Chinese zodiac, it is the year of the rat, but from where I’m sitting, it’s the year of the Dragon.

For an interesting video on the differences between Communist China and Communist Vietnam, Click Here.

For posts on society and history, Click Here.

For a post on my generation in Vietnam, and my observations on how they are navigating change, click here.

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